In a previous post I mentioned that a new national economic study had suggested that the (national) housing market would lag the overall economic recovery. And while it's always nice to get the "big picture" sense of how we're doing, it's also very important to localized and focus on our own area - Edmonds, WA.
One of the metrics folks use to determine the health and type of market is by calculating the level of housing inventory. Typcially, when it is determined that there are 0-3 months worth of inventory, it's considered a seller's market. When ther are 3-6 months of inventory, it's considered a balanced market, and when there is 6 or more months of inventory in any given market, it's considered a buyers market. It's basic supply/demand economics. The less inventory there is out there (0-3 months) means that buyers will be competing for fewer homes. The more inventory there is out there (6+ months) means that there is a glut of homes to choose from. The assumption (and downside) of this model is that it doesn't account for the number of buyers out there at any given time. In essence, we assume the number of buyers is, therefore, always constant.
By this metric, how healthy is the real estate market in Edmonds, WA?
As of this post, there are 158 active condo listings and 40 under contract. Similarlry, there are 240 active single family residence (SFR) listings and 71 SFR listings currently under contract.
There are two ways we can calculate inventory: one based on sales rate (actually closed in past 30 days) and one based on pending sales (homes currently under contract but not yet closed)*. I'll do both here for kicks:
Condominiums:
- # of months inventory (sales): 19.8
- # of months inventory (pending): 4.0
SFR's:
- # of months inventory (sales): 6.5
- # of months inventory (pending): 5.1
By these numbers, I make one observation that is obvious to me as a Realtor and one that may be a little surprising to folks. First, the condo market in Edmonds is horrible. It's been hit the hardest throughout the Puget Sound region and is no different here in Emdonds. Second, our inventory level for SFR's is coming down and is starting to tread near the "balanced" market range.
There are sellers out there thinking, "This can't be. I'm having the hardest time selling my home." Well, aside from external factors like price, condition, location and marketing efforts, remember that this model does not take into account the number of buyers currently in the market. And it's clear that the number of buyers currently house hunting is lower than in years past.
As with many things in life, there is goods news and bad news. The good news is that the SFR market in Edmonds has done well in both maintaining value and overall housing health (relatively speaking). The bad news is that the local condo market has not fared as well.
Great time to buy; perhaps a great time to sell as well. Or not.
Casey
Edmonds, WA
* I used only those homes that went pending in the past 30 days.
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_______________________
Casey Bui, MPA
Managing Broker,
Residential Real Estate Division
Rockwell Realty
(206) 234-5611
caseybui@gmail.com