"All Things Edmonds" Blog

Well, I guess it's offiically: the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has pronounced the Great Recession OVER.  As of June 2009. That's right, over a year ago.  We can all breathe a sigh of relief and go back to work now.  Oh, wait. We all can't go back to work because our unemployment rate still hovers somewhere near 9% in this state.

So what gives?

I think there is a scientific (more or less) definition of a recession and a practical definition.  While economic indicators may point to signs that we are growing, those indicators have yet to reach mainstream America.  Corporaate profits are up, but corporate America hasn't really started hiring yet.  And in my opinion, we won't see real economic recovery until unemployment starts to shrink. 

Warren Buffet has the same common-sense view of a recession (though he has more money than me). In a CNBC interview, he said, "On any commonsense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And we're not gonna be out of it for awhile, but we will get out of it."

That also means the housing market will continue to stutter along.  Every day I talk with homeowners who want to sell so that they can take advantage of these great interest rates. But they also have to work within financial constraints of lower house values on their existing homes.  Every day I see the impacts of low buyer activity in the market.

I think Harry Truman said it best when he said, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose yours."   But rather than become cynical, we should take care to note that there is indeed a silver lining to all of this.  Like anyone who's ever had a cold or flu knows, the bug may be gone from our system, but it still tags a few days to recover fully.  Same goes for our economy.  We're growing again; it's just going to take us a little bit to recover fully and for folks to go back to work and things to start looking rosy again.

I think it's interesting to note that we never really got that close to a true depression.  See the chart below.

If a depression is defined as 10% decline in GDP, we weren't even close.  And that is something to be truly grateful for. I shutter to think what would happen if the recession we are experiencing now (or I guess, technically, we've already experienced it according to the NBER) were twice as worse. It'd still not be a depression.  This thought gives us an even greater appreciation for the folks who actually endured one.

So, take heart Edmonds.  You're getting better. Not 100% healthy yet, but you're getting there!

Casey

         Why I love Edmonds.....   Reason #3

    The coho are coming!  Our access to the waters of Puget Sound are unparalleled. Go fishing! 

Don't we live in such a magnificent area?!  I caught two coho (8 lbs and 12 lbs) last weekend.  I was reminded that so much of what keeps our property values up in Edmonds is the natural beauty within which we live. 

Keep up the good work, Edmonds!

My wife and I had a nice dinner at E pu lo Bistro on Main Street in downtown Edmonds recently. What made it fabulous was that a perfect stranger had paid our bill - including dessert! This pay-it-forward act reinforced our belief that the people of Edmonds can be the nicest bunch of people around.

This experience was so profoundly impactful that we discussed our own tendencies to think inward and fail to consider how we can bless others with such a simple act. We have committed to carrying out such acts more regularly. Not so much to make ourselves feel good, but moreso to give others a boost or a sense of something special beyond themselves.

I challenge you all to do the same!

Have you heard the news?  One of the more prolific short sale listing agents had his firm's real estate license suspended by the state.  News of this license suspension affects hundreds of active listings.

Make sure that as a seller - even if you're in a short sale position - you do your own due diligence when it comes to listign your home for sale.  If you have any questions or need more information abou the process, feel free to drop me a line. 

Casey
Rockwell Realty

The Seattles Times is reporting today that the number of homes sold in King County was down 18% from a year ago.    I decided to do some quick number crunching and found that here in Snohomish County, sales volume has dropped even further: 25% (from 635 homes sold in 2009 to 476 this year).  That number is three percentage points higher if you account for condominium sales as well.

Our fair city of Edmonds did far better, closing just 13% less homes August '10 (39 sold) than in August '09 (45).

Here's a quick breakdown of how each neighborhood in Edmonds did last month (compared to year-ago figures):

• Edmonds Bowl: no change (4 sales in August '09 & '10)
  
• 5 Corners: +300% (3 sales last month vs. zero in August '09)
  
• Downtown: +200% (2 sales last month vs. zero in August '09)
  
• Edmonds Comm College:no change (zero sales in August '09 & '10)
  
• Esperance: +100 (1 sale last month vs. zero in August '09)
  
• Lake Ballinger: no change (2 sales each in August '09 & '10)
  
• Meadowdale: -33% (6 sales last month vs. 9 in August '09)
  
• Perrinville: no change (zero sales August '09 & '10)
  
• Seaview: -71% (2 sales last month vs. 7 in August '09)
  
• Westgate:+100% (2 sales last month vs. 1 in August '09)
  
• Woodway: +100% (1 sale last month vs. zero in August '09)
  
• Yost Park: +100% (1 sale last month vs. zero in August '09)
  

These numbers will vary slightly as sales depend on agent designation of neighborhoods.